ScoreboardEdge runs an Elo-based pricing model against real market odds across NFL, NBA and NHL — every pick logged and graded live, on a public dashboard, with no money changing hands.
Each league gets its own Elo ratings, its own live board, and its own news — built and rolled out on its own timeline.
Elo ratings replayed from real nflverse results, 1999–2026, updating after every game. Full live board of upcoming games with model vs. market prices.
Pipeline is live, but historical ratings are currently anchored at Dec 2022 while we source a compliant 2023–2026 results bridge ahead of the Oct 3 tip-off.
NHL coverage is confirmed for ScoreboardEdge — the odds and ratings pipeline is next in line to be built, after NFL/NBA. Not live yet.
Every ScoreboardEdge market boils down to one of these two questions.
Who wins, straight up. The model produces a win probability for each team, compared against the market's own no-vig probability — the gap between the two is the "edge."
Wins by how much — the point spread in NFL/NBA, the puck line in NHL. Reference market lines are already being logged, but our margin model isn't calibrated enough yet to trust for live picks.
The model. Live picks are scored with a bare-Elo model (margin-of-victory k-factor, seasonal regression) — the version that came out of our Phase 3 proof-of-concept backtest. A more complex three-model blend was also tested and did not make the cut: it underperformed on real backtests and isn't wired into live picks.
The honest headline. In backtesting on real historical data, bare Elo did not beat the closing market outright for either NFL or NBA — that's exactly where our first sports model started too. Every game is logged at four edge thresholds so the live sample can answer, honestly, whether that changes.
The data. Live odds and results come from public sportsbook feeds; historical ratings are bootstrapped from real play-by-play and results archives for each league as it's built.
The rules. No staking decision is pre-selected. All stakes are one notional unit. No money changes hands — this is a public research and validation project, not a betting product.